Revving Up Electric Cars in 2012 and Beyond
-Electric vehicle manufacturers had a rough December. Aptera closed its doors, Fisker recalled hundreds of plug-in hybrids, and Chevy sought to address battery-related safety concerns. But don't expect a few potholes to halt progress toward vehicle electrification.
-According to new reports from Next10 and Pike Research, the electric vehicle industry is alive, particularly in California, and growing. In 2012, carmakers will introduce a variety of models – from Toyota's Prius Plug-in Hybrid to Tesla's Model S and Ford's Focus EV – that will make electric vehicles more accessible and affordable, increasing sales.
-In "Powering Innovation," Next10 reports that California leads the United States in vehicle electrification. California ranks first in venture capital investment in electric vehicle-related technologies, first in electric vehicle-related patents and first in electric vehicle charging stations per capita. In the first half of 2011, California attracted nearly 70% of global venture investment in electric vehicle-related companies.
-California owes its leadership position in part to supportive public policies. According to Next10, California also benefits from entrepreneurial talent and strong research and development capabilities, which serve as a magnet for investment.
-According to Coulomb's Romano, consumer interest in electric vehicles is spreading, from California to Washington State, Maryland, Texas and beyond. As a result, electric vehicle sales will pick up nationwide. Pike Research expects that many urban residents will first drive an electric vehicle through car sharing services such as ZipCar, RelayRides or City Car Share. But consumers who do purchase electric vehicles will increasingly take advantage of workplace charging, as employers begin purchasing charging stations in large numbers to attract young professionals.
-However, not all industry-watchers are as optimistic. Thilo Koslowski of Gartner believes 2012 will be "a bit of a 'cooling off' year" for electric vehicle buzz. Indeed, a federal judge last week made California's regulatory environment significantly less certain. The court blocked California from enforcing a low-carbon fuel standard, a regulatory framework that encouraged the adoption of electric cars.
-Moreover, significant technical obstacles remain before electric vehicles will achieve mainstream consumer adoption. Electric carmakers must reduce battery and car costs, extend battery life and vehicle driving range, and address consumers' safety concerns.
-Much of this research will go nowhere and many of the companies that spin out of these institutions will fail. But Bhattacharya argues these failures will be no more significant than that of Aptera on the road to vehicle electrification.